Florida State vs. NC State Prediction: Bowl Eligibility on the Line in ACC Clash
The Seminoles are favored to end their losing road streak against the Wolfpack with both teams vying for their sixth win.
The winner of Friday night’s game between Florida State and North Carolina State is headed back to a bowl game. The loser will have to hope to secure its sixth win in the regular-season finale against an in-state rival.
The Seminoles (5-5, 2-5 ACC) once looked destined for much more than the Gasparilla Bowl. FSU’s season started with a win over a top-10 Alabama team, a sign that coach Mike Norvell’s team might rebound from a two-win season. It’s been a struggle since then, including an 0-4 start to conference play, though the ’Noles have won two of their last three.
The Wolfpack (5-5, 2-4 ACC) have been up and down all season. Coach Dave Doeren’s team has wins over Virginia and Georgia Tech, the two teams who might meet in Charlotte in the conference championship game. But NC State has also been blown out by Notre Dame, Pitt and Miami.
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FSU leads the all-time series, 26-21, but the Wolfpack have won three in a row dating to 2020, Norvell’s first season in Tallahassee.
Florida State vs. NC State Odds and Info
Location: Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina
Kickoff: Friday, Nov. 21 at 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: FSU -4.5
Over/Under: 61.5
Announcers: Anish Shroff, Andre Ware
Florida State vs. NC State Keys to Victory
1. There’s No Place Like Home?
It’s not often that the Wolfpack lose at home. Since 2020, they’re 31-8 at Carter-Finley Stadium, which is tied with Clemson for the best mark in the ACC. (SMU is 28-6, but the Mustangs joined the conference in 2024.) The Seminoles in particular have struggled in Raleigh — their most recent win was in 2016. But FSU has endured problems on the road overall as of late. The ’Noles are winless away from Tallahassee since the 2024 season began and have lost nine consecutive away or neutral-site games dating back to 2023. The oddsmakers like that streak to end, even though NC State has been a different team at home (4-1) and on the road (1-4). Momentum likely lies with Florida State, but the Wolfpack knocked off the Yellow Jackets as underdogs last time they were in front of their fans.
2. Seminoles’ Ground Game
Only a handful of teams average more yards of offense per game than Florida State. And while Tommy Castellanos’ passing efficiency has slowed down, the ’Noles committee approach on the ground is quite successful. Their 30 rushing touchdowns are the seventh-most nationally, though no single player has more than 500 yards on the year. Gavin Sawchuk leads the backfield, followed by Castellanos, while Ousmane Kromah works in as a change-of-pace back. NC State ranks top 10 in defensive success rate against the run, so this should be a good matchup in the trenches. While Miami just went for over 200 yards on the ground against the Wolfpack, they held Georgia Tech and Notre Dame well below their season averages.
3. NC State’s Aerial Attack
Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey is coming off a season-worst outing against Miami in which he threw for 120 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. However, he accounted for over 600 yards of offense and six touchdowns with just one turnover in his previous two games against quality competition. Bailey can punish opposing secondaries, and FSU isn’t necessarily elite against the pass. Although the ’Noles allow fewer than 200 passing yards per game, that’s a byproduct of teams not attempting many passes against them. Bailey spreads the wealth around as seven different pass-catchers have 20-plus catches, though Terrell Anderson is his top target. The entire offense had a rough go against Miami, but running back Hollywood Smothers’ return could also open up passing opportunities for Bailey if Florida State has to respect what’s been an up-and-down run game.
Score Prediction: NC State 35, Florida State 34
The Seminoles’ road woes hang over this fight to reach bowl eligibility. Neither offense should have any issue moving the ball up and down the field, and a point total in the 60s reflects the likelihood of a shootout. The Wolfpack won’t be pushed around on their home field, though, and their experience and success in one-score games (3-2) as opposed to FSU’s (0-4) should give them a slight upper hand if this game indeed goes down to the wire.
ATS: NC State +4.5
O/U: Over 61.5
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This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Nov 21, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.